The Efficiency Penalty Of Rural Education: A Six-Zone Longitudinal Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Of School Attendance Interventions In Nigeria (2017–2025)

Abstract

This study quantified the cost-effectiveness of four school attendance interventions—school feeding, conditional cash transfers (CCTs), teacher deployment, and security provision—across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones from 2017 to 2025, using the ?rural efficiency penalty? as the analytical lens. A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted with longitudinal Multidimensional Poverty Index data and 2025 state education expenditure reports across Sokoto, Taraba, Plateau, Ogun, Enugu, and Rivers states. The primary outcome was the cost per additional child achieving regular school attendance, with adjustments made to estimate intervention-attributable attendance gains. The findings showed that school feeding was the most cost-effective intervention, with cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 28,500 to 41,200 per additional child. Conditional cash transfers were substantially more expensive in northern zones ( 62,000– 84,500) than in southern zones ( 16,200– 22,400), with the North-West costing 5.2 times more than the SouthWest. Security expenditures accounted for 26–38% of intervention costs in northern zones compared with 10–15% in southern zones. The inclusion of ?Security and Shocks? in the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index substantially increased measured poverty in conflict-affected states, demonstrating that insecurity is a major driver of educational deprivation and financing inefficiency. As of 2026, 63% of Nigerians (141 million people) were projected to live in multidimensional poverty. The study concludes that educational exclusion in Nigeria is fundamentally shaped by geography, poverty, and insecurity. It recommends prioritizing school feeding, redesigning CCT delivery systems in fragile regions, integrating security into educational budgeting, and adopting zone-stratified cost-effectiveness analysis for educational planning in low-income federalsystems.

Joseph Olusegun Adeagbo; Gbenga Edward Oladokun & Monsurat Adeseyi Adelakun. The Efficiency Penalty Of Rural Education: A Six-Zone Longitudinal Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Of School Attendance Interventions In Nigeria (2017–2025). Ibadan Journal of Educational Studies, 23(2), 154-165.